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CX2SA > SWPC 25.02.16 00:23l 63 Lines 2273 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39698-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160224/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39698 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39698-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 55 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1229Z from Region 2506 (S07E48). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 374 km/s at 24/0734Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/0857Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/2142Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1937 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (25 Feb,
26 Feb, 27 Feb).
III. Event probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 088
Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 24 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 005/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb-27 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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