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CX2SA > SWPC 26.02.16 00:23l 61 Lines 2157 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 39804-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160225/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:39804 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:39804-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Feb 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 56 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Feb 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Feb, 27 Feb, 28 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 470 km/s at 25/0320Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
25/2058Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
25/0429Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 932 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (26 Feb, 27 Feb, 28
Feb).
III. Event probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Feb 092
Predicted 26 Feb-28 Feb 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 25 Feb 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Feb 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Feb 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Feb-28 Feb 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Feb-28 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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