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CX2SA > SWPC 02.03.16 00:22l 61 Lines 2177 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40108-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160301/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40108 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40108-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 61 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (02 Mar,
03 Mar, 04 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 01/0719Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 01/0531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
01/0423Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 554 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (02 Mar,
03 Mar, 04 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Mar 097
Predicted 02 Mar-04 Mar 100/105/105
90 Day Mean 01 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Feb 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Mar 008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Mar-04 Mar 007/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Mar-04 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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