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CX2SA > SWPC 06.03.16 00:23l 62 Lines 2228 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40317-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160305/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40317 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40317-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 65 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (06 Mar,
07 Mar, 08 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 05/1103Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/2044Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0643Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 417 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (06 Mar), quiet to
active levels on day two (07 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (08 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Mar 096
Predicted 06 Mar-08 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 05 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Mar 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Mar-08 Mar 014/020-011/015-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Mar-08 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/30/20
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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