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CX2SA > SWPC 07.03.16 00:23l 61 Lines 2222 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40377-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160306/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40377 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40377-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 66 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Mar,
08 Mar, 09 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 06/2055Z. Total IMF
reached 22 nT at 06/1658Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-18 nT at 06/1834Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 706 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (07 Mar) and quiet
to unsettled levels on days two and three (08 Mar, 09 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Mar 096
Predicted 07 Mar-09 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 06 Mar 107
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Mar 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Mar 014/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 017/022-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Mar-09 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/20/15
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 50/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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