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CX2SA > SWPC 12.03.16 00:33l 61 Lines 2213 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40613-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 160311/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40613 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40613-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 71 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Mar,
13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 596 km/s at 11/1924Z. Total IMF
reached 27 nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-25 nT at 11/1150Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 673 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Mar, 14 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 094
Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 018/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 013/015-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar-14 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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