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CX2SA > SWPC 13.03.16 00:26l 64 Lines 2338 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40644-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<I3XTY<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 160312/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40644 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40644-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 72 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0619Z from Region 2513 (N10W57). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Mar,
14 Mar, 15 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 597 km/s at 11/2256Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 12/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 182 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (13 Mar), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (14 Mar) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (15 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Mar 095
Predicted 13 Mar-15 Mar 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 12 Mar 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Mar 021/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Mar 013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Mar-15 Mar 010/010-007/008-017/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Mar-15 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/40
Minor Storm 05/05/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/60
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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