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W7EES > SWPC 12.09.14 06:07l 57 Lines 2124 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5906W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<GB7YEW<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 140912/0103 22790@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13
Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at
11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on
day three (14 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 85/85/85
Class X 50/50/50
Proton 99/99/90
PCAF red
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 151
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-037/060-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/45
Minor Storm 45/40/30
Major-severe storm 25/45/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/01/05
Minor Storm 15/10/20
Major-severe storm 85/90/75
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