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CX2SA > SWPC 20.03.16 00:22l 61 Lines 2160 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40948-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<XE1FH<CX2SA
Sent: 160319/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40948 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40948-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 79 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Mar,
21 Mar, 22 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 19/1728Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 19/0511Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
19/0552Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 980 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Mar, 21 Mar, 22
Mar).
III. Event probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 089
Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 19 Mar 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar-22 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 10/10/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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