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CX2SA > SWPC 21.03.16 00:24l 63 Lines 2270 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 40984-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<IK6ZDE<I0OJJ<N6RME<CX2SA
Sent: 160320/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:40984 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:40984-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 80 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
20/0133Z from Region 2521 (N18W91). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 471 km/s at 19/2250Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 20/2001Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
20/1714Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1640 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (21 Mar,
22 Mar, 23 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 088
Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 090/085/085
90 Day Mean 20 Mar 103
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 009/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 008/008-007/008-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar-23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 20/25/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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