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CX2SA > SWPC 27.03.16 00:24l 61 Lines 2202 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 41244-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160326/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:41244 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:41244-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Mar 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 86 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (27
Mar, 28 Mar, 29 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 457 km/s at 25/2113Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/2052Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
26/0312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 329 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Mar, 28 Mar) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Mar).
III. Event probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Mar 086
Predicted 27 Mar-29 Mar 085/085/080
90 Day Mean 26 Mar 100
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Mar 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar 008/010-011/012-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar-29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/30/15
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/40/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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