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CX2SA > SWPC 11.04.16 00:25l 62 Lines 2225 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42042-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160410/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42042 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42042-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/2255Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Apr,
12 Apr, 13 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 10/2050Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 10/1306Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/0615Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (11 Apr, 12 Apr)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (13 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Apr 111
Predicted 11 Apr-13 Apr 112/112/112
90 Day Mean 10 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Apr 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Apr-13 Apr 008/008-008/008-013/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Apr-13 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/35
Minor Storm 05/01/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/10
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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