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CX2SA > SWPC 13.04.16 00:26l 62 Lines 2225 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42132-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<HB9CSR<IK2XDE<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160412/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42132 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42132-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 103 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
12/0751Z from Region 2529 (N09E14). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Apr,
14 Apr, 15 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 512 km/s at 12/2040Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 12/1953Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
12/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (13 Apr, 14
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Apr 111
Predicted 13 Apr-15 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 12 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Apr 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Apr 013/017
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Apr-15 Apr 018/030-018/030-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Apr-15 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 30/30/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 70/70/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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