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CX2SA > SWPC 15.04.16 00:26l 63 Lines 2309 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42209-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 160414/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42209 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42209-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13/2100Z to
14/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
13/2343Z from Region 2529 (N09E00). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (15 Apr,
16 Apr, 17 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 13/2145Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 14/0829Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 14/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5141 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (15 Apr) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (16 Apr, 17 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Apr 111
Predicted 15 Apr-17 Apr 110/110/110
90 Day Mean 14 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr 016/025
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Apr 016/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr-17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/20
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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