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CX2SA > SWPC 16.04.16 00:27l 63 Lines 2274 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42249-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IW7BFZ<IK7NXU<IK6IHL<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA
Sent: 160415/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42249 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42249-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 106 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
15/1430Z from Region 2529 (N10W24). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16
Apr, 17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 434 km/s at 14/2215Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/2029Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/0019Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2538 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (16 Apr,
17 Apr, 18 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 112
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 111/111/108
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 099
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 014/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 007/008-007/008-006/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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