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CX2SA > SWPC 24.04.16 00:26l 61 Lines 2181 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 42618-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160423/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:42618 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:42618-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Apr, 25 Apr, 26 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 588 km/s at 22/2115Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/1833Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/2016Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 268 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (24 Apr,
25 Apr, 26 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 079
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 079/078/078
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 013/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 007/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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