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CX2SA > SWPC 04.05.16 00:28l 61 Lines 2194 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43027-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160503/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43027 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43027-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (04 May) and likely to be
low on days two and three (05 May, 06 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 636 km/s at 03/0618Z. Total IMF
reached 7 nT at 02/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4006 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (04 May, 05 May, 06
May).
III. Event probabilities 04 May-06 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 090
Predicted 04 May-06 May 095/105/110
90 Day Mean 03 May 096
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 026/031
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May-06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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