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CX2SA > SWPC 12.05.16 00:30l 59 Lines 2065 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43284-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160511/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43284 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43284-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 11 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 May,
13 May, 14 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 615 km/s at 10/2240Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 48559 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (12 May, 13 May, 14
May).
III. Event probabilities 12 May-14 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 May 094
Predicted 12 May-14 May 097/100/100
90 Day Mean 11 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 May 015/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 May 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 May-14 May 005/008-005/005-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 May-14 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/05
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/10/15
Major-severe storm 25/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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