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CX2SA > SWPC 20.05.16 00:31l 62 Lines 2247 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43801-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160519/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43801 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43801-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 18/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 May).
III. Event probabilities 20 May-22 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 099
Predicted 20 May-22 May 100/100/100
90 Day Mean 19 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 018/022-012/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May-22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 25/15/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 20/25/30
Major-severe storm 60/50/40
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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