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CX2SA > SWPC 25.05.16 00:32l 63 Lines 2306 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44150-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160524/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44150 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44150-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 145 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
24/1020Z from Region 2546 (S07W63). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 May,
26 May, 27 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 519 km/s at 24/0416Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 24/0749Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
24/0907Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 509 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 May) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (26 May, 27 May).
III. Event probabilities 25 May-27 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 May 094
Predicted 25 May-27 May 095/095/090
90 Day Mean 24 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 May 007/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May 008/008-009/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May-27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/20
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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