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CX2SA > SWPC 27.05.16 00:32l 63 Lines 2320 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44203-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160526/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44203 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44203-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1336Z from Region 2548 (N13W36). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one and two (27 May, 28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance
for a C-class flares on day three (29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 381 km/s at 26/2045Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
25/2131Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
26/1505Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 579 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (27 May, 29 May)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (28 May).
III. Event probabilities 27 May-29 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 092
Predicted 27 May-29 May 090/085/090
90 Day Mean 26 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 009/012-007/008-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May-29 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/25
Minor Storm 10/05/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/20/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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