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CX2SA > SWPC 29.05.16 00:33l 61 Lines 2214 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44320-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160528/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44320 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44320-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27/2100Z to
28/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 592 km/s at 28/0656Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 27/2124Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
27/2349Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 115 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (29 May, 31 May)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (30 May).
III. Event probabilities 29 May-31 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 088
Predicted 29 May-31 May 090/090/085
90 Day Mean 28 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 012/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 013/015-016/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May-31 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/40/25
Minor Storm 10/20/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 35/55/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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