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CX2SA > SWPC 30.05.16 00:33l 62 Lines 2239 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44388-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160529/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44388 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44388-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 May 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28/2100Z to
29/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
May, 31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 527 km/s at 29/2041Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 29/1813Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/2024Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 564 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (30 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (31 May) and quiet levels on day three (01
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 083
Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 080/075/075
90 Day Mean 29 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 013/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 015/020-010/012-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May-01 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 40/25/10
Minor Storm 20/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 55/35/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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