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CX2SA > SWPC 02.06.16 00:34l 63 Lines 2312 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44642-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160601/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44642 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44642-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 153 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (02 Jun, 03 Jun)
and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on
day three (04 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 528 km/s at 31/2352Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 31/2134Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/2123Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1373 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (03 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels on day three (04
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 086
Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 085/080/075
90 Day Mean 01 Jun 092
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 010/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 006/005-008/010-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun-04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 05/10/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor Storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 15/35/75
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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