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CX2SA > SWPC 12.06.16 00:35l 61 Lines 2229 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 45766-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160611/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:45766 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:45766-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jun,
13 Jun, 14 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 657 km/s at 11/1039Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 10/2104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
10/2152Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 641 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (13 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (14 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jun 088
Predicted 12 Jun-14 Jun 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 11 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jun 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jun 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jun-14 Jun 011/012-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jun-14 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/15
Major-severe storm 35/20/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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