| |
CX2SA > SWPC 14.06.16 00:36l 63 Lines 2295 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 45972-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160613/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:45972 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:45972-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/0552Z from Region 2552 (N14, L=002). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun,
15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 13/0532Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 313 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 091
Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 092/094/090
90 Day Mean 13 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/006-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun-16 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/25
Minor Storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 25/40/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
