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CX2SA > SWPC 27.07.14 00:25l 62 Lines 2264 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 8592-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IR1UAW<IK1NHL<CX2SA
Sent: 140726/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA #:8592 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:8592-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SA
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
26/1320Z from Region 2123 (S15E13). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jul,
28 Jul, 29 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 427 km/s at
26/1350Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0640Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0619Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to active levels on day
two (28 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jul 117
Predicted 27 Jul-29 Jul 125/130/135
90 Day Mean 26 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jul 007/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 006/005-009/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul-29 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/25
Minor Storm 01/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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