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CX2SA > SWPC 19.06.16 00:37l 61 Lines 2170 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 46283-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160618/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:46283 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:46283-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jun 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Jun, 20 Jun, 21 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 664 km/s at 18/0134Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 17/2118Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0748Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 812 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 Jun, 20 Jun, 21
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Jun 084
Predicted 19 Jun-21 Jun 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 18 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun 007/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Jun 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun 006/005-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun-21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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