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CX2SA > SWPC 09.07.16 00:25l 63 Lines 2319 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48145-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160708/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48145 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48145-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/0056Z from Region 2564 (N10E79). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (09 Jul,
10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 672 km/s at 08/0916Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 07/2226Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 07/2151Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 908 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (09 Jul, 11
Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (10 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 087
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 087/087/087
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 015/020-008/008-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/35
Minor Storm 15/05/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/30
Major-severe storm 45/20/45
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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