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CX2SA > SWPC 10.07.16 00:25l 63 Lines 2306 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48303-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160709/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48303 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48303-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
09/1607Z from Region 2564 (N09E63). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Jul,
11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 692 km/s at 09/1439Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 08/2313Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/1300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3008 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (10 Jul, 12 Jul)
and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Jul 092
Predicted 10 Jul-12 Jul 092/092/090
90 Day Mean 09 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul 018/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Jul 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul 015/016-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul-12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor Storm 10/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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