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CX2SA > SWPC 11.07.16 00:25l 64 Lines 2380 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48373-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160710/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48373 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48373-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
10/0059Z from Region 2564 (N09E51). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 10/0044Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
10/0504Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4159 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to
active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (13 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 094
Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 092/090/090
90 Day Mean 10 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 015/020-012/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul-13 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/25/15
Minor Storm 15/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 45/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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