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CX2SA > SWPC 12.07.16 00:25l 61 Lines 2216 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 48450-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160711/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:48450 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:48450-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 608 km/s at 11/0233Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/1150Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4449 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13
Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 095
Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 095/095/095
90 Day Mean 11 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 011/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 012/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 012/012-012/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul-14 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/25
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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