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CX2SA > SWPC 21.07.16 00:23l 64 Lines 2371 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49139-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160720/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49139 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49139-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 202 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
20/0317Z from Region 2567 (N05W37). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(23 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 20/0721Z. Total IMF
reached 34 nT at 20/0100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-28 nT at 20/0022Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 3426 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (21 Jul, 22 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (23 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
Class M 25/25/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Jul 108
Predicted 21 Jul-23 Jul 105/105/100
90 Day Mean 20 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jul 011/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jul 018/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 013/016-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jul-23 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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