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CX2SA > SWPC 22.07.16 00:23l 64 Lines 2348 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49223-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160721/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49223 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49223-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
21/0046Z from Region 2567 (N05W52). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
chance for M-class flares on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul) and
likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day three
(24 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 518 km/s at 21/1439Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at
21/0418Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached 0 nT at
21/1915Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (22 Jul,
23 Jul, 24 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (22 Jul, 23 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
Class M 35/30/15
Class X 05/05/01
Proton 10/10/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Jul 100
Predicted 22 Jul-24 Jul 100/100/095
90 Day Mean 21 Jul 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jul 019/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Jul 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 009/010-008/008-007/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jul-24 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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