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CX2SA > SWPC 25.07.16 00:24l 67 Lines 2587 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 49485-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160724/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:49485 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:49485-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
24/0620Z from Region 2567 (N05W92). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (25 Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Jul) and
expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day
three (27 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 473 km/s at 24/1453Z. Total IMF
reached 13 nT at 24/1512Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 24/2006Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (25 Jul, 26
Jul, 27 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (25 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
Class M 40/10/01
Class X 10/01/01
Proton 10/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 082
Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 075/075/070
90 Day Mean 24 Jul 089
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 010/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 011/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/012-010/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul-27 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/35/25
Minor Storm 05/15/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/45/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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