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CX2SA > SWPC 10.08.16 00:27l 63 Lines 2304 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50653-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160809/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50653 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50653-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at
09/0042Z from Region 2574 (N05E49). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Aug,
11 Aug, 12 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 673 km/s at 09/0940Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 09/0955Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
09/0851Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 4147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (11 Aug, 12 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Aug 092
Predicted 10 Aug-12 Aug 095/100/100
90 Day Mean 09 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Aug 010/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug 010/012-007/010-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug-12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 35/30/30
Major-severe storm 30/25/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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