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CX2SA > SWPC 12.08.16 00:27l 63 Lines 2298 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50770-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160811/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50770 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50770-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
11/1644Z from Region 2574 (N04E21). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Aug,
13 Aug, 14 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 652 km/s at 11/1605Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/0055Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10558 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (12 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 095
Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 095/090/090
90 Day Mean 11 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 007/008-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug-14 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 30/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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