| |
CX2SA > SWPC 13.08.16 00:27l 61 Lines 2208 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50932-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160812/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50932 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50932-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Aug,
14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 868 km/s at 12/1314Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/2102Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
11/2118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7552 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (13 Aug, 14 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 095
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 090/090/090
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-007/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 01/01/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
