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CX2SA > SWPC 25.08.16 00:29l 62 Lines 2278 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 51788-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160824/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:51788 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:51788-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 237 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (25 Aug) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (26 Aug, 27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 690 km/s at 24/0148Z. Total IMF
reached 17 nT at 23/2254Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 23/2341Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 107 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug)
and quiet levels on day three (27 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 078
Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 080/080/075
90 Day Mean 24 Aug 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 012/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 009/010-006/006-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/15
Major-severe storm 15/15/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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