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CX2SA > SWPC 09.09.16 00:32l 61 Lines 2176 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 52941-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160908/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:52941 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:52941-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 08/0043Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0437Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 095
Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/092
90 Day Mean 08 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 009/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep-11 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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