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CX2SA > SWPC 12.09.16 00:33l 62 Lines 2309 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 53172-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160911/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:53172 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:53172-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (12 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 10/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11499 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 086
Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 086/082/080
90 Day Mean 11 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 012/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep-14 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/15
Major-severe storm 20/10/15
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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