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CX2SA > SWPC 26.09.16 00:22l 63 Lines 2272 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54145-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160925/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54145 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54145-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/1914Z from Region 2597 (S13W25). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 425 km/s at 25/1755Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 25/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 25/1021Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (26 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (27 Sep) and unsettled to major storm levels on
day three (28 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 085
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/021
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 014/018-012/012-024/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/20/25
Minor Storm 05/05/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/25/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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