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CX2SA > SWPC 27.09.16 00:22l 61 Lines 2215 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 54204-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 160926/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:54204 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:54204-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (27 Sep,
28 Sep, 29 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 509 km/s at 26/2011Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 26/1958Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 26/1856Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 235 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Sep) and active to minor
storm levels on days two and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Sep 087
Predicted 27 Sep-29 Sep 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 26 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep 012/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep 018/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 012/012-026/040-028/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor Storm 05/20/20
Major-severe storm 01/15/15
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/50/50
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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