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CX2SA > SWPC 10.10.16 00:24l 61 Lines 2188 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 55252-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161009/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:55252 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:55252-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (10 Oct,
11 Oct, 12 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 423 km/s at 09/0908Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3515 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Oct) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (11 Oct, 12 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Oct 105
Predicted 10 Oct-12 Oct 105/105/110
90 Day Mean 09 Oct 088
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct 007/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 006/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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