| |
CX2SA > SWPC 21.10.16 00:24l 62 Lines 2231 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56125-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161020/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:56125 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56125-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Oct, 22 Oct, 23 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 465 km/s at 19/2324Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
20/1758Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
20/0712Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 38252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Oct), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (22 Oct) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Oct 075
Predicted 21 Oct-23 Oct 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 20 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Oct 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Oct 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct 005/005-016/022-018/024
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Oct-23 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/35/35
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 15/20/20
Major-severe storm 10/40/30
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
