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CX2SA > SWPC 22.10.16 00:24l 60 Lines 2148 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56195-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161021/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:56195 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56195-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (22
Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 426 km/s at 20/2213Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 26846 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Oct), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (23 Oct) and active to major storm levels
on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 078
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 075/075/072
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 005/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 016/022-018/024-027/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/45
Minor Storm 10/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 40/30/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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