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CX2SA > SWPC 06.10.14 23:28l 62 Lines 2260 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 11174-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IV3SCP<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<7M3TJZ<CX2SA
Sent: 141006/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:11174 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:11174-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2014 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2014
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
06/1707Z from Region 2185 (S14E43). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low on days
one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
453 km/s at 05/2345Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 06/0945Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 06/0059Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 323 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09
Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 130
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 125/125/125
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 132
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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