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CX2SA > SWPC 01.11.16 00:26l 61 Lines 2185 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 56954-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161031/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:56954 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:56954-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Oct 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Oct 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (01
Nov, 02 Nov, 03 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 589 km/s at 31/0008Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 31/0005Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
31/0300Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 21357 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Nov,
02 Nov, 03 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Oct 077
Predicted 01 Nov-03 Nov 078/076/074
90 Day Mean 31 Oct 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Oct 013/020
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Oct 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Nov-03 Nov 010/010-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Nov-03 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 20/20/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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