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CX2SA > SWPC 04.11.16 00:27l 61 Lines 2235 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57147-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161103/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57147 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57147-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (04
Nov, 05 Nov, 06 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 441 km/s at 02/2246Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/1933Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 02/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4359 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (05 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (06 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Nov 076
Predicted 04 Nov-06 Nov 078/078/078
90 Day Mean 03 Nov 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov 012/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov 015/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov 008/010-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/15
Major-severe storm 40/20/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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