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CX2SA > SWPC 08.11.16 00:27l 62 Lines 2236 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 57477-CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 161107/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:57477 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:57477-CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2016 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2016
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (08
Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 332 km/s at 07/0752Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
07/0759Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
06/2137Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1317 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (08 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 077
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 014/020-010/012-011/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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